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Historically, “when is the next jobs report” hasn’t been a burning question when the economy is expanding and the unemployment rate is sitting well below 5%.
But a market desperate to discount the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid sticky inflation has made the nonfarm payrolls report a tent-pole event for forecasting monetary policy.
That’s especially true now that the labor market has cooled down. Employment showed only moderate growth in November, rising by 64,000, while August and September’s numbers were revised lower by a collective 33,000. October’s figures were muddied by the government shutdown. The fact that the gains were overwhelmingly driven by the health care and social assistance sectors is worrisome.
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“We believe job creation will remain low – around the 40,000 jobs created that count for a ‘breakeven’ pace of employment growth in today’s economy,” writes Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. “Still, there is no doubt December’s job report marks a tone-setting moment for the Fed and for markets.”
Market participants are eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates because lower rates equal higher future returns for stocks. The fact that the short-term federal funds rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is still at somewhat restrictive levels is hardly ideal for equities.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the FOMC are trying to walk a fine line between sticky inflation and a softening labor market.
That’s why any time we get a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, it hasn’t been the best news for equities. Plentiful jobs and rising wages typically help fuel inflation, at least when it’s demand-driven.
On the other hand, continued weakness on the jobs front should keep the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle intact.
When is the next jobs report?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Department of Labor, releases the Employment Situation Summary – also known as the employment report, jobs report or nonfarm payrolls report – at 8:30 am Eastern on the first Friday of every month (unless there’s a holiday or other reason to move it to a more convenient time).
The jobs report consists of separate surveys of households and employers estimating the number of people on payrolls, average number of weekly hours worked, average hourly earnings, labor force participation, unemployment rates and other data.
To get a sense of what the BLS is up to, here’s an example of some of its methodology: “Each month the program surveys about 119,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 629,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The active sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs.”
The jobs report gives us a comprehensive look at the labor market, which is ultimately what fuels consumer spending. Recall that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity, and you can see why the jobs report has always been front and center.
The December employment situation report will be released on Friday, January 9. Economists’ consensus forecast is for payrolls to expand by about 55,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.5% from 4.6%.
For those wondering “when is the next jobs report?,” have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the BLS, below.
|
Reference Month |
Release Date |
Release Time |
|---|---|---|
|
December |
January 9 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
January |
February 6 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
February |
March 6 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
March |
April 3 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
April |
May 8 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
May |
June 5 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
June |
July 2 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
July |
August 7 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
August |
September 4 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
September |
October 2 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
October |
November 6 |
8:30 am Eastern |
|
November |
December 4 |
8:30 am Eastern |