US States in the Midwest – Kentucky, Michigan, and Indiana – will be exposed disproportionately to President Donald Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on imports of autos, trucks, and car parts from Canada, should it be implemented at the start of 2027, Oxford Economics stated in a report released today. Canadian auto manufacturers’ purchases of parts and other goods from US businesses support an estimated 0.12% of US jobs. A 50% US tariff on Canadian-made vehicles would put some of those jobs at risk.
While the overall U.S. economic impact of this proposed tariff remains minimal at the national level, the state-level effects will be heavily concentrated. Kentucky faces the highest exposure—relative to the national average, Kentucky jobs are 3.7 times more exposed given their stronger links to Canadian auto procurement—followed by Michigan (3.5x) and Indiana (3.2x), the report says.
We estimate two-thirds of exposed jobs will be in sectors other than automotive manufacturing. This harks back to the effect of the 25% steel tariff that the US imposed in 2018. Although the steel industry itself was protected (and saw a jobs boost), industries reliant on steel and aluminum saw jobs growth slow initially, declining outright during Trump’s second term, when the administration raised the tariff to 50%
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